Market Commentary

Politician Trades & The Defense Rally: Profiting Off War?

Turra Rasheed
19 Jun 2025 · 2 minutes read

When Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites on June 12, it triggered swift retaliation. Drones, missiles, and global fear of escalation followed and defense contractors saw a wave of buying. Shares spiked, and the entire sector pushed upward. 

The surge wasn’t just emotional. Investors anticipate a significant boost in defense spending, renewed contracts, and urgent restocking as tensions ripple through the Middle East and U.S. allies prepare for possible escalation. But before missiles flew and markets surged, a few members of Congress were already quietly placing their bets.

Profit in the Fog of War

Notable political figures made a series of timely and lucrative buys in defense and aerospace stocks ahead of the June escalation:

  • Markwayne Mullin made two separate buys of L3Harris Technologies:

    • The February 13 purchase is currently up 25%,

    • while the May 13 acquisition has gained nearly 15% to date.

  • Josh Gottheimer and Bruce Westerman both invested in RTX, which has risen 23%. Gottheimer’s additional trades in L3Harris and Northrop Grumman have seen smaller gains of 2.7% and 1.6%, respectively.

  • Gil Cisneros took positions in Rheinmetall AG (up 29%), Boeing (17%), L3Harris (2.7%), and Northrop Grumman (4%).

  • Jefferson Shreve accumulated shares across several defense names:

    • Axon Enterprise has risen by 45%,

    • Heico Corporation by 22%,

    • GE Aerospace by 19%,

    • and TransDigm Group by 14%.

  • Bruce Westerman acquired Boeing on April 8, with the stock now up roughly 44%. He also bought RTX Corporation (up 23%) and Safran SA (up 11%).

  • Ashley Moody purchased shares of Howmet Aerospace on January 22 and April 4. The latter position has since appreciated by approximately 53%, while her January trade is up nearly 36%.

  • Michael McCaul added Woodward Inc. and GE Aerospace to his portfolio in February and March. Both positions are now showing gains of approximately 31% and 25%, respectively.

These trades-executed primarily between late January and early June-landed just ahead of the outbreak of active hostilities between Israel and Iran, capturing substantial upside as defense markets rallied. While the eruption of war may have surprised many, the volume and timing of these trades, and the profits they’ve generated, are hard to overlook.

A Pattern, Not a Fluke

Defense stocks aren’t new territory for politicians. However, what makes this recent trading surge more notable is how closely it aligns with the timeline of real-world conflict. These aren’t generic long-term plays. They’re tightly timed trades that preceded a geopolitical event with major market impact.

In a year already shaped by volatility, the Israel-Iran flare-up added yet another chapter, and once again, some politicians seem to have turned risk into reward. Whether it's intuition, information, or pure chance, one thing is clear: being in Congress still has perks Wall Street would envy.

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